Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 0.088013 0.097903 0.108063 0.119252 0.131204 0.143562 0.157280
2025-01-19 0.070287 0.084934 0.100791 0.119112 0.139573 0.161604 0.187004
2025-01-26 0.062910 0.081472 0.102449 0.127609 0.156669 0.188896 0.227052
2025-02-02 0.053854 0.074587 0.098991 0.129282 0.165325 0.206324 0.255965
2025-02-09 0.047350 0.069732 0.097055 0.131992 0.174618 0.224131 0.285173
2025-02-16 0.040756 0.063872 0.093132 0.131631 0.179724 0.236671 0.308035
2025-02-23 0.038314 0.063043 0.095230 0.138496 0.193488 0.259514 0.343221
2025-03-02 0.035742 0.061686 0.096375 0.143958 0.205413 0.280140 0.375878
2025-03-09 0.030757 0.056377 0.091794 0.141580 0.207117 0.287997 0.392885
2025-03-16 0.026052 0.050935 0.086560 0.137907 0.206799 0.293074 0.406287
2025-03-23 0.024500 0.050097 0.087632 0.142643 0.217379 0.311864 0.436793
2025-03-30 0.022636 0.048560 0.087543 0.145672 0.225658 0.327749 0.463763
2025-04-06 0.020470 0.046447 0.086661 0.147803 0.233135 0.343199 0.491051
2025-04-13 0.018100 0.043748 0.084744 0.148395 0.238574 0.356178 0.515520
2025-04-20 0.018135 0.045278 0.089371 0.158549 0.257284 0.386734 0.562858
2025-04-27 0.016401 0.043396 0.088519 0.160605 0.264799 0.402656 0.591537
2025-05-04 0.015072 0.042101 0.088481 0.163790 0.273869 0.420683 0.623071
2025-05-11 0.013217 0.039529 0.086164 0.163389 0.277789 0.431815 0.645671
2025-05-18 0.012990 0.040228 0.089295 0.171339 0.293671 0.459130 0.689656
2025-05-25 0.012504 0.040319 0.091361 0.177647 0.307248 0.483431 0.729839
2025-06-01 0.010679 0.037245 0.087754 0.174904 0.307584 0.489645 0.746058
2025-06-08 0.008869 0.033875 0.083352 0.170661 0.305535 0.492459 0.757675
2025-06-15 0.008496 0.033866 0.084992 0.176131 0.317837 0.515097 0.795889